Atlantic Insight, by southeast New Brunswick's W.E.(Bill) Belliveau who analyzes and comments on matters of public policy and the social and economic decisions taken, by all levels of government from local to global. Atlantic Insight Blog is a commentary on current affairs and changes in the marketplaces and/or in the business world. The impact of policy, decisions and changes are explored for their impact on the citizens of Atlantic Canada. You are invited to add your comments.
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Saturday, July 25, 2009
Iceland & lobsters…
In recent years, Icelandic banks have been disproportionately involved in the financing of Atlantic Canada's lobster fishery. That banking system started to collapse in the fall of 2008. Coincidentally, demand for lobster started to drop as people reined in their recession-based spending and prices began to fall. The combination created a credit crunch for processors who were stuck with large volumes of unsold inventory.
Every year, processors in the Maritimes borrow money to finance inventory. The harvesting season is short and stored inventory is used to supply the market for months beyond the harvesting season, theoretically keeping prices high throughout the year.
The Icelandic financial situation coming in the midst of a global financial crisis received little attention in Canada except for those in the lobster industry. Until a year ago, the 21st century had smiled kindly on Iceland. It boasted the highest standard of living of any country in the world, according to the United Nations.
Following privatization of the financial sector in the early 2000s, domestic banks expanded aggressively in foreign markets like Atlantic Canada and consumers and businesses borrowed heavily in foreign-currency. Much of Iceland's economic growth/wealth had come as the result of a boom in domestic demand following the post-privatization rapid expansion of the country's financial sector.
In the growth period, Icelandic banks had been engaging in a practice known as maturity mismatching, the issuing of short-term liabilities (obligations that have to be satisfied in one to five years) in order to invest in long-term assets. The banks found themselves in a squeeze when they had to roll over the necessary funds to maintain liquidity. The Loans and other assets of Icelandic banks were more than 10 times the country's GDP. The island's currency, the króna, plunged in value, making it impossible for bankers, both private and central, to raise the cash necessary to continue funding their liabilities.
Unfortunately, unlike many other areas of the world where help from central banks provided short-lived relief, Iceland was forced to suffer a much more dire fate. Iceland's three largest banks collapsed in late 2008.
In Atlantic Canada, the C$1 billion a year lobster industry began to struggle in 2008 as it coped with a slump in demand in the United States and Europe that has since pushed landed prices down below $4.00 a pound, levels not seen in 25 years or more. The federal government has announced that it will help ease the situation this year by introducing a loss-reduction program that will compensate the most dependent fishermen for lower value landings in 2009.
A number of other help solutions have been advanced. Some people want to reduce the number of lobster licenses to increase the catch for those who remain in the industry. Some think the problem is simply a marketing problem. Others view it as a declining stock problem and still others believe the problem is rooted in the traditions of an industry that has changed little in the last sixty years.
The federal government has promised marketing funds and offered incentives for the development of new sustainability plans. In my view, those initiatives should be supported by product development that will add value to the catch and increase the yield per pound of lobster harvested.
In respect to marketing, few people outside this region know how to cook a lobster, let alone how to get the meat out of the shell. Lobster is a delicacy that can be adapted for use as an appetizer, included in a pasta dish, used to build a tasty-chowder or bisque or it can be served as the primary ingredient in a salad. One of the challenges with lobster is that it has a short shelf-life when alive. It either has to be cooked within hours of being taken from the water or it has to be stored in expensive holding tanks.
Another issue faced by both harvesters and processors is that lobster is perceived as a luxury food in a depressed market. People are shopping down the menu, not up so lobster takes a hit. To compound matters, some foreign importers are demanding certification of sustainability practices, certification of environmentally-friendly practices and traceability in terms of source, handling and storage practices. A compounding challenge when talking sustainability is finding a way to capture the full benefits of a healthier fishery as the lobsters move from one fishing zone to another including from Atlantic Canada to offshore Maine.
The economics of the industry are changing. It's possible that a new value proposition will have to replace the luxury label. Who knows, a food source that has been known as a luxury purchase for decades might find a new mantra as a nutritional star in an era of food safety and wellness promotion.
W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com
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Saturday, July 18, 2009
Another CF-105 Arrow in the making…
A medical isotope is a small quantity of radioactive material which is injected into people to detect, diagnose, treat or evaluate serious illnesses such as cancer and heart disease. Millions of these procedures are performed around the world every year with approximately 70 to 80% of them using a substance called Technetium which is produced in nuclear reactors.
The Technetium isotope injection targets specific organ systems such as the heart or goes to specific disease sites in the body. Sophisticated imaging devices are then used to pinpoint the exact location of the disease and track its biological activity. The results of these tests better inform doctors on the state of a disease in patients, help identify the best treatment for them and then monitor response to their treatment.
The vast majority of the world's supply of medical isotopes is produced in nuclear facilities located in Australia, Belgium, France, South Africa, the Netherlands and Canada. Until its recent closure for repairs, the Chalk River plant in Ontario produced about one third of the world's supply. The shutdown is having a major impact on medical care throughout the world. To compound matters, Prime Minister Harper has announced that Canada will get out of the business in the next few years.
Every year, more than 46 million people around the world benefit from medical tests involving medical isotopes. The concern about production losses is that patients will not receive the vital testing they need to detect and treat life-threatening diseases at the earliest stages. Early detection increases the likelihood of better outcomes and survival. I'm told that delayed testing results in delayed treatment, puts patients at risk and increases the cost of treatment.
AECL shut down the Chalk River reactor on May 15th after discovering a heavy-water leak. Officials estimate it will be at least six months before it´s up and running again.
Coincidentally, Mr. Harper has decided that the federal government will sell off Crown-owned Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. He plans to spin off AECL´s profitable nuclear reactor business as part of a major restructuring that would lead to private-sector ownership of the company´s research facility in Chalk River.
The stage for that policy-shift was set last year when Harper's Conservative government announced it would scrap two next-generation Maple reactors, meant to replace the aging reactor at Chalk River. The Maples were millions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule when the Tories pulled the plug.
"It was a difficult decision" said Harper. "But we can´t spend hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars and never produce an isotope".
A worldwide shortage of isotopes is causing suppliers to dramatically hike their prices. The cost of bone scans in Canada has soared by as much as 50% since May. It's expected that prices will rise again in August when Covidien, a large global healthcare company and diagnostic-imaging agent raises its prices by another 40%, all of this in a strained global economy.
I know nothing about the economics of isotope production but I do know that medical isotopes represent a $4 billion market. I find it difficult to accept the notion that Canada would abandon a market of this size when it has a one third share, demand is growing and prices are rising. There are few if any markets in the world that can boast $4 billion in revenues. There are fewer markets where Canada has a one third share and even fewer where prices are rising.
The extended shutdown of the troubled nuclear reactor at Chalk River has the U.S. government ready to invest millions to get back into the business of medical isotopes, a move that could eventually push Canada out of the business. An official from the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration said recently that the outage at Canada's Chalk River reactor, which traditionally has filled about 60% of U.S. demand, has prompted a "supply crisis" that has captured the attention of officials in the White House.
The U.S. has taken the hint from Mr. Harper's announcement that Canada is getting out of the business of isotope production. His policy may cost us dearly. The Americans weren't looking to abandon Canada's isotope supply until Harper forced them to do so. If the United States decides to make its own isotopes, there would be little incentive for Canada to reverse its non-production decision. If this major customer disappears, so might the nuclear scientists, technicians and researchers in Canada's nuclear industry. Remember the CF-105 Arrow!
If Canadians become dependent on the United States for medical isotopes, our dependence will likely increase cost for our hospitals, our medical system and ultimately taxpayers. Market value of AECL could also take a big taxpayer hit.
Is this good strategy or just another example of ideology run amuck?
W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
A farewell to Roméo LeBlanc…
Along with a few thousand other people, I had the privilege of attending the State Funeral of former Governor General Romeo LeBlanc last week. Romeo was a teacher, a journalist and press secretary to two prime ministers before he was elected to Parliament in 1972. He had served as Press Secretary to Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson and to Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau. In government, he served under various titles as Minister of Fisheries in three of Trudeau's Cabinets, becoming Canada's longest serving minister in this position. It was under his watch that Canada's coastal fishing zone was extended from 12 to 200 miles. He was also responsible for the strong role that Canada played in the Law of the Sea conferences from 1974-1979.
Before, during and after the funeral, hundreds of tributes were paid to the former Governor General but perhaps the greatest tribute is found in the crowd of more than 2,000 people who traveled to the tiny, picturesque village of Memramcook to pay their respects to Romeo. They came from across Canada to the first state funeral ever held in Atlantic Canada and likely the biggest event ever held in the village of Memramcook, with the possible exception of the 1999 Francophone Summit. The funeral was attended by national media, it was broadcast nationally by CBC Television and it was sprinkled with familiar faces from academia, business, government, politics and the fishery.
Eulogies were delivered by former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien and Dr. Naomi Griffith, renowned scholar, historian, author and former Dean of Arts at Carleton University in Ottawa, one of the first women in history to hold that post. Especially moving was the stirring tribute paid to Roméo by his son Dominic, Member of Parliament for Beauséjour. Mr. LeBlanc told mourners, packed into Saint-Thomas Church that his father was deeply proud to serve as a federal cabinet minister, senator and Canada's 25th Governor General. "The country has lost a devoted Canadian who did his best to serve with humility and compassion," he said under the 169-year-old church's domed ceilings. Dominic LeBlanc, who represents his father's former riding in the House of Commons, also remembered the former Governor General as a devoted family man who put his two children, daughter Geneviève and himself
first.
Romeo LeBlanc was the first Acadian and the first Atlantic Canadian to become Governor General of Canada. He was a man of many achievements but his most important was the fact he never lost sight of who he was or where he came from. He ended his days in Grand Digue just twenty minutes northeast of Memramcook.
Former cabinet minister Marc Lalonde, who recruited Mr. LeBlanc to serve as a press secretary for Prime Minister Lester Pearson in the 1960s, told people his old friend never let Ottawa change him. Hundreds of others would vouch for that statement.
Dignitaries attending the funeral, headed by the LeBlanc family included the current Governor General Michaelle Jean, Lieutenant-Governor Herménégilde Chiasson,
Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Premier Shawn Graham, the Honorable. Peter MacKay, Minister of Defense and the Honorable Greg Thompson, Minister of Veterans Affairs. Members of Parliament Michael Ignatieff, Brian Murphy from Moncton, the Honorable Bob Rae, Geoff Regan, Scott Brison, Denis Coderre, Ralph Goodale, Michael Savage and Justin Trudeau all paid their respects.
They were joined by former premiers Frank McKenna, Bernard Lord, Camille Theriault and Brian Tobin from Newfoundland and Labrador, Chief Justice Ernest Drapeau and Judge Rideout. Former cabinet ministers included the Honorable David Dingwall, Andre Oulette, David Anderson and Andy Scott.
Provincial cabinet ministers Mike Murphy, Bernard LeBlanc and Ed Doherty were joined by David Alward, leader of the Opposition in New Brunswick, Cy LeBlanc, MLA from Dieppe, Claude Williams, Kent County, Percy Mockler (now a senator), former cabinet minister Omer Leger, prominent businessmen Denis Losier, Jim Irving and Dick Carpenter, former lieutenant-governors Marilyn Trenholme and Mona Freeman from Nova Scotia, Senators Fernand Robichaud, Al Graham and Joyce Fairburn from Saskatchewan.
Academia was represented by Yvon Fontaine, President of the l'Université de Moncton and Dr. Donald Savoie, author and holder of the Clément-Cormier Chair in Economic Development at l'Université de Moncton. They were joined by former journalist Claude Bourque,
Member of the Order of Canada and Robert Pichette, author, historian and former Deputy Minister to the late Premier Louis-J. Robichaud.
The most visible dignitary at the funeral was National Chief Phil Fontaine, who attended mass in full headdress. He was joined by a number of First Nation chiefs including Chief Jesse Simon from New Brunswick and Chief Lawrence Paul from Nova Scotia. The fishery was represented by lobster fisherman Ronnie Cormier, former President of the Maritime Fishermen's Union when my brother was Executive Director and Jim Jones, Director General of Fisheries & Oceans Canada.
Last but not least was a distinguished and esteemed gentleman from Ottawa, Kevin Fram, Executive Assistant to Roméo LeBlanc when he was Governor General and close friend to Dominic LeBlanc. Romeo will be missed by all of us who knew him.
W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com
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Saturday, July 04, 2009
One of the most intelligent cities on the planet…
I was surprised to learn that Greater Moncton had been declared one of the world's most intelligent communities by a New York based think-tank, the Intelligent Community Forum. How does a small community like Moncton achieve such a ranking? According to the Forum, intelligent communities are those which have, whether through crisis or foresight, come to understand the enormous challenges of the Broadband Economy and taken steps to create an economy capable of prospering in it. They are not necessarily big cities or famous technology hubs. They are located in developing-nations and industrialized nations, suburbs as well as cities.
For most of the 20th Century, Greater Moncton was the transportation hub of Atlantic Canada. The Canadian National railroad (CN) had its repair shops in the city and a cluster of transport-dependent employers, such as the Eaton's Catalog Center. As many of you will recall, Moncton ran into the perfect economic storm in the 1980s. CN announced that it was closing down its Moncton Shop facilities. The Eaton's Catalog Centre closed and several local factories followed close behind. A once-proud transportation centre suddenly found itself with short-term economic problems and serious concerns about its economic future. Compounding the circumstance was the fact that rail and transportation had dominated Moncton's economy for so long, that its workforce was caught in a time-warp - educated for manual work, unprepared for the emerging knowledge economy.
Moncton responded to its crisis by organizing a series of planning exercises beginning in 1989. Symposium 2000 brought together local government and business leaders from Moncton, Dieppe and Riverview, as well as provincial and federal agencies. A partnership was forged between local and provincial governments that would attract new business to the region. Perhaps most important, they formalized collaboration among Moncton, Dieppe and Riverview on sharing the management of municipal services such as water and policing and on the joint development of projects like the Greater Moncton International Airport.
In the late 1980s, Moncton became a player in the call-centre industry. NBTel (now Bell-Aliant) executive Gerry Pond and Frank McKenna, then Premier of New Brunswick worked closely on the call-centre file. NBTel became the first Canadian carrier to build a 100% digital network, creating a suite of services to support call centers, including the leasing (rather than purchase) of costly switches and systems for home-based employees.
Greater Moncton, boasting low costs and the fact it had one of the largest bilingual workforces in Canada worked with the provincial government to actively promote the region as a place to base telecom-intensive services and IT operations. Together, they helped the city attract national and international call-centers such as Exxon-Mobil, UPS, Purolator, FedEx, Fairmont Hotels, Rogers Communications and the Royal Bank of Canada.
Call-centers had become a major employer by 1994 but Greater Moncton recognized that call-center success was not enough. The future lay in development of the "knowledge businesses" – natural and applied sciences, business and finance, computer programming and information systems.
During the latter part of the 1990s, homegrown ICT businesses prospered. Atlantic Lottery Corporation which manages the Atlantic region's gaming industry became a world leader in technology advancement and deployment. PropertyGuys.com developed a national business by leveraging the Internet to become one of Canada's dot-com success stories.
By 2006, almost 45 out of every 1,000 workers in the Greater Moncton Census Area worked in customer service, information or related positions, compared with an average of 12 for Canada. Moncton witnessed a 300% increase in employment in ICT companies, a 153% increase in employment for graphic designers and illustrators and a 43% increase in jobs for writers and translators.
What is really significant is that Greater Moncton has added more than 25,000 jobs in management, finance, health services, technology and education since 1990. To add perspective, one should know that between 2001 and 2006, the province of New Brunswick suffered a net population loss of 3,900 people while Greater Moncton added 6,800 new residents. In 2008, the call-centre industry had a $290 million payroll and generated a $765 million in economic activity.
The 2009 Cushman & Wakefield LePage "Marketbeat Report" says Greater Moncton's new $90 million casino, hotel and entertainment centre (currently under construction), the new $50 million courthouse, the $40 million shopping complex on Mapleton Road and the new $20 million track and field stadium that will host the 2010 IAAF World Junior Track & Field Championships at the l'Université de Moncton should cause metro's economic growth figures to soar. "While other North American cities face economic troubles, Greater Moncton could have a record year in 2009," the Report says. It seems clear to me that Greater Moncton has earned its designation as one of the world's most intelligent communities.
W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com
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