Atlantic Insight

About Atlantic Insight

Atlantic Insight, by southeast New Brunswick's W.E.(Bill) Belliveau who analyzes and comments on matters of public policy and the social and economic decisions taken, by all levels of government from local to global. Atlantic Insight Blog is a commentary on current affairs and changes in the marketplaces and/or in the business world. The impact of policy, decisions and changes are explored for their impact on the citizens of Atlantic Canada. You are invited to add your comments.


Saturday, March 28, 2009

The CBC is too important to leave to bureaucrats …

CBC President and Chief Executive Hubert Lacroix announced this week that the public broadcaster would have to cut about 800 full-time positions at CBC/Radio-Canada and sell about $125 million in assets. There will be job losses in New Brunswick (Moncton and Saint John) in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

The Canadian Broadcasting Company (CBC) is a public broadcaster owned by the Government of Canada. Its mission
is to inform, enlighten and entertain Canadians but more importantly, its purpose is to create a place where Canadians from all regions and all walks of life can tell their stories; a place where Canadians can discover the world, a place where Canadians can interpret the news of the world in terms of its impact on this country Canada. It's not CNN.

The Government of Canada has refused to bridge-finance the CBC's current financial crisis (not of its own making) and forced it to make dramatic cuts in its spending priorities. Last August, the Conservative Government announced a $45 million cut in funding to cultural funding. It cost them the election in Quebec. Mr. Harper said protecting artists and funding arts is a waste of taxpayers' money. It seems clear that by refusing to bridge-finance the CBC, he is reinforcing his view that culture and cultural funding is a low priority for his government.

The resulting circumstance is that public servants will be making decisions about what is important or not important to Canadians. According to Mr. Lacroix cuts will be audience-based, the smaller an audience the more likely a service will be cut. This does note bode well for small communities or more selective audiences. It popularizes reasons for service without regard to cultural or regional consequence.

Technology has fostered a proliferation of broadcasting channels in Canada. In many communities, listeners and viewers enjoy unprecedented choice. That is part of the problem because much of that choice is American programming, not Canadian.

Americans flood the airways and dominate our films. The CBC is the only Canadian broadcaster to serve all regions of Canada in both official languages. We need a place where Canadians can speak to each other, where they can share what makes them the same and what sets them apart from others, where they can tell each other about their differences. We need an institution solid enough to take risks, to transcend obsessions with ratings, to consider factors other than profitability and to provide a place for new voices and the next generation.

Commercial radio, cross-border television and the internet neutralize the voice of Canadians. We need an institution to nurture, produce and disseminate Canadian culture, in the broadest sense of the term. We are not alone. Countries such as France, Germany, Australia and New Zealand share with us this need to ensure that they and we have a place for our own unique expression. All of them spend or invest substantially more currency, per capita in public broadcasting than Canada.

There are programs the private sector would never consider, because their financial viability is too risky or too distant in the future. The private sector might never produce quality programming for children without commercials, nor would it provide French-language radio service to every region of Canada.

The CBC's mission is not to compete in the crowded segment of U.S. conventional television and film. It must offer Canadians something different - something they can identify with. The CBC is a leader in journalism, and I suspect the largest news organization in Canada. They are the only news organization in Canada with a news and programming presence throughout the country.

The independence and research-depth of their news and information service is crucial. The CBC's ability to report on current events and major issues without fear of interference makes a vital contribution to Canadian democracy, even though the dictates of journalistic freedom occasionally generate tension between the government and the broadcaster.

As I understand it, CBC News strategy is based on four principles: provide Canadians with balanced information about region, country and world; present reports and analysis on major issues affecting Canada and Canadians; inform citizens in the regions of Canada about the concerns and opinions of other regions and to foster better mutual understanding of differing views. If we allow the CBC to speak only to its largest audiences, we'll weaken the fabric of this country by ignoring the views of our smaller communities. If we lose the CBC, we end up with Fox News and American Idol.

With all due respect for the current economic crisis, it is my view that the CBC is more important to this country and this region than short term cuts in its government financing.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com



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Saturday, March 21, 2009

A budget full of good intentions …

Rationale for the Government's tax reform is that lower taxes will attract and retain new businesses and new people to New Brunswick. In the private sector, such a strategy might be compared to a small business positioning itself in the market as a price leader. The problem with a low price strategy when its not tied to some unique value is that the business becomes vulnerable to predators and fluctuations in the economy.

Low price means low margins (the difference between net sales and the cost of merchandise before expenses and profit). In a commodity market, big guys can afford to match the little guy's price until they put him out of business. Unless he has something unique that consumers want to buy, the little guy can't survive on low price alone.

Applying the business analogy to government leads one to suggest that a province or state that features price (low taxes) as its unique selling proposition could find itself on a very slippery slope. Ireland used its tax system to attract economic development. It was very successful until recently when the economic crisis forced some of its major plants to shut down and caused others to move to lower cost countries.

Ireland's once-roaring economy was the fastest-growing in Europe most of the last 18 years but Ireland was also the first among the 15 nations that use the euro to officially fall into recession.

Economic growth in Ireland since the early 1990s had ranged from 4.5% to 10.7% a year, higher than Europe and the United States. That's why it was dubbed the Celtic Tiger in 1994. By 2006, Ireland had achieved full employment and the highest incomes in the euro countries, except for Luxembourg. Today, it's a basket-case.

I'm disturbed that the Provincial Budget provides $300 million to prop up the public service pension fund when nobody is offering to contribute to the fallen value of my retirement investments. There may be legal requirement for doing so but if that is the case, we should know more about it.

I'm also disturbed by the timing of New Brunswick's tax cuts. With revenues falling, record investments in stimulus and a $300 million pension albatross around our neck, now is not the time to be cutting taxes. Indeed, I would support an increase in the GST to help fund these expenditures.

Some will point to the failed actions of U.S. President Hoover in the Great Depression as reasons why we should be cutting taxes now. Hoover believed the basic need was to restore public confidence so businesses would begin to invest and expand production to create jobs and grow the economy but business owners saw no reason to increase production while unsold goods clogged their shelves. Hoover was convinced that a balanced budget was essential to restoring business confidence and sought to cut government spending and raise taxes. In the face of a collapsing economy, this served only to further reduce demand. Conditions worsened and Hoover's administration eventually had to provide emergency relief. But it was too little, too late.

David Dodge, former head of the Bank of Canada told the Globe and Mail in an interview this week that Canada and the world is facing a long and deep recession that will fundamentally alter the nature of capitalism. Recovery "is not going to be as quick as everybody thinks," Dodge told the paper.

The Bank of Canada, on the other hand has forecast a fast turnaround for Canada, with growth resuming in the second half of this year and soaring to 3.8 per cent next year. Ottawa expects a healthy recovery that will bring its books back to surplus by 2013. "They're not going to do that. It's totally unrealistic," Dodge told the paper.

Dodge sees a permanent, painful contraction of several mature industries such as the automobile and newsprint industries and a sober reassessment of investment in oil sands.

As if to contradict Dodge, Canadian retail sales in January rebounded from a December drop by growing 1.9 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday. The January increase followed December's 5.2 per cent plunge, which was the largest monthly decline in more than 15 years.

The point is that nobody has a crystal ball to guide them through this mess. Nobody has a magic formula that will resolve the economic crisis. Tax reforms financed by wage freezes, cuts in the public service, cuts in ferry services and a massive deficit in a time of recession strike me as ill-timed and overly ambitious. We are in survival mode. We should be laying the groundwork for change but we should refrain from actions that align with the past rather than the future.


W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com



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Saturday, March 14, 2009

The dichotomy of stimulus versus self-sufficiency …

Self-sufficiency in real terms is the state of not requiring outside aid, support, or interaction, for survival. It is a type of personal or collective autonomy. A totally self-sufficient economy does not trade with the outside world.


In New Brunswick, self-sufficiency has been defined more narrowly as the point at which the provincial government no longer requires "equalization payments" from the federal government.


On Tuesday of next week, the Province's Minister of Finance will introduce his 2009/2010 Budget, a budget that reportedly will promise a deficit of some $800 million dollars. Much of that deficit will be created by a loss of tax revenue (the result of recession-driven declines in sales and income tax revenue) and contributions to provincial government pension plans, weakened by huge losses in stock market values. The Province is not alone on the pension issue, witness the huge value losses in the Canada Pension Plan, the Ontario Teachers' Fund and the Caisse populaire Desjardins de Québec, to name just a few. Some portion of New Brunswick's deficit will be created by extraordinary investments in infrastructure projects designed to stimulate the provincial economy and create jobs for New Brunswickers who have lost their jobs as a result of recession.


A dichotomy may be created in the budget by the diversion of focus from self-sufficiency to stimulus. Investments in self-sufficiency are investments in the future. Investments in economic stimulus are investments in survival and turnaround. The challenge is to marry the two in such a way as to cause stimulus to contribute to the longer term goal of self-sufficiency.


Some regional think-tank people and some New Brunswick media are quick to jump on the notion of deficit as irresponsible spending. Both are ill-informed. Don't get me wrong, I am not a proponent of deficits or irresponsibility but I understand the value of investment when it's designed to create positive return.


Earlier this week, in Toronto, I listened to a very successful fund manager dissect the world's financial and economic crisis. It was mostly bad. Here's what he said: U.S. banks are virtually insolvent. Their balance-sheet assets are over-valued. Stock market values will continue to decline. Government bailouts (auto, banks, etc.) will fail because they will not stimulate buyer demand. Loss of government revenues, combined with the costs of bailout and stimulus will force governments to print more money, leading to inflation and a currency with significantly less value. His only positive "buy gold" because its value will grow exponentially.


Stephen Harper's response to this bleak forecast was to be happy. On Tuesday, he was telling auto-workers in Brampton, Ontario that Canada is well-positioned to "catch the wave of economic recovery". His story is that Canada was last into the recession and will be first out. He proffered that recession is an opportunity for Canada. Then he blamed the Americans for the global financial crisis and the resulting recession. I don't disagree with him on either count but I wonder about his communications strategy. On the one hand, he floats the idea of capitalizing on recession-opportunities and on the other hand, he pokes blame at our largest trading partner and boasts about our superior banking system. It reminded me of his election stance last fall when he first promoted the global meltdown as a stock market "buying opportunity".


This weekend, representatives of the world's largest economies will meet near London, to try and come up with a co-ordinated strategy to deal with the global economic crisis. They will tinker with regulations that might prevent future financial crisis and they will critique the world's stimulus packages, in terms of their sufficiency and effectiveness. In my view, they will be blowing smoke. The world is changing and nobody knows where the change is going.


We need to protect ourselves from the current circumstance but we also need to prepare ourselves for the future. Some people seem fixated on the minutia of deficit and offer little by way of alternative. The criteria for judging the merits or non-merits of New Brunswick's deficit should be – is it avoidable? Will it help to create jobs that otherwise would be absent in the current environment, will it help people in distress and will it create the foundation for future economic growth?


Self-sufficiency remains a dream, a vision for New Brunswick that will help determine our future viability as an independent but interdependent people. Next week's Provincial Budget will likely see red. It could also bring tax-reform. If the reform is based on an old model, it could run into a wall. If it addresses the current opportunities of crisis and offers a way forward, it could be a deal-maker. Finance Minister Boudreau should be cognizant of that reality.


W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com



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Saturday, March 07, 2009

Time for a change …

A scan of internet blogs commenting on the financial circumstance of General Motors would find a surprising number of people saying "let them go". On Thursday, GM's auditors raised "substantial doubt" about the troubled automaker's ability to continue operations and the company said it may have to seek bankruptcy protection if it can't execute a huge restructuring plan.

Auditors from the accounting firm Deloitte & Touche LLP said in the report that "the corporation's recurring losses from operations, stockholders' deficit and inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations and sustain its operations raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern."

A former Prime Minister of Canada once said "living next door to the United States is in some ways, like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly or temperate the beast, one is affected by its every twitch and grunt." Witness our economic recession and the plight of our auto industry.

GM has already received $13.4 billion in U.S. government loans as it tries to survive the worst downturn in auto sales in 27 years. It is seeking a total of $30 billion from the U.S. government. During the past three years it has piled up $82 billion in losses, including $30.9 billion in 2008. In Canada, the company's Canadian subsidiary is seeking up to $7 billion Canadian in aid from the federal and Ontario governments.

Canadians spend a lot of time in cars. In a country as big as Canada, we don't have much choice. Cars have become more than just transportation. They're part of who we are.

Canada has grown steadily to become one of the largest automotive producers in the world. Our industry shipments rose from $47.9 billion in vehicles and $21.1 billion in parts in 1996, to $59.8 billion in vehicles and $28.5 billion in parts in 2006. We have a proven reputation for innovation, research and development, quality and productivity. We have a well-developed dealer network and a world-class aftermarket sales and service sector that supplies replacement parts and accessories.

The automotive industry is Canada's largest manufacturing sector, accounting for 12% of manufacturing GDP and 24 percent of manufacturing trade. It employs (or did until recently) 158,302 people in automotive assembly and component manufacturing and another 336,212 in distribution and aftermarket sales and service.

The auto parts industry has more than
650 suppliers who produce original equipment and aftermarket auto parts, components and systems. Until recently, the industry employed more than 90,000 people and exports about 62 percent of its production value. There are more than 3,000 auto dealers in Canada with retail sales of $70 billion plus before the recession. They represent 25 manufacturers and employ more than 170,000 people. The automobile "aftermarket" employs more than 160,000 people including those in used car sales, parts, accessories, tires and the manufacturing of tools and equipment.

We have too much invested in this industry to let it die but we must also understand that its problems are not rooted solely in the recession. Detroit has taken far too long to bring new and redesigned vehicles to market. Falling sales and falling market share have meant that plants have been operating below capacity. GM's plants were reported to be operating at 85 per cent capacity as far back as November 2005, well below the plants of its Asian competitors.

If General Motors fails, the impact will be felt far and wide - by hundreds of suppliers, rival automakers and ultimately dealers across the nation. Suppliers would be among the first to feel those effects since GM only manufactures the body, the engine and the transmission used in its cars. Suppliers provide everything from steering wheels and seatbelts to brakes and airbags.

American automakers failed to re-invest profits in fuel efficiency and better design. By failing to respond to consumer needs, they abandoned their customers.

It's clear that we can't abandon the auto industry. The economic fall-out would be far too great. Does it make sense to bail out everybody? My answer is no.

Clearly there was overcapacity in the industry before the economic crisis. Restructuring is a term used to describe the partial dismantling or reorganization of a company or an industry for the purpose of making it more profitable. Aid to the industry should be tied to a plan that would see fewer but more competitive auto-makers. Aid should also require the industry to meet new fuel-efficiency standards and produce more advanced vehicles.

A restructured, more competitive North American automobile industry with new products, more efficient plants, fewer employees, renegotiated contracts and multi-billion dollar loans could bring long-term economic sustainability to the industry but we need to be cognizant of Mr. Trudeau's elephant analogy in the process.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com



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Sunday, March 01, 2009

Considering the State of the Province - New Brunswick

State of the Province…
On Tuesday, President Barack Obama delivered his first “State of the Union” message.

It was a clear statement on the state of the country, the state of the economy and a clear declaration of his intent moving forward. In Ottawa, we have a government more interested in crime punishment than the economy or where Canada is headed.

In late January, Premier Shawn Graham delivered his annual “state of the province” address. He acknowledged the economic crisis and charted a path forward in terms of investment and stimulus. He reminded us as well that New Brunswick continues to build its foundation for self-sufficiency in spite of our economic challenges.

A column published this week by Constantine Passaris, Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics at the University of New Brunswick argues convincingly that New Brunswick needs to stay the course with respect to its self-sufficiency agenda. He reminds us that a province with historically high unemployment levels and personal income levels well below the national average is foolish to rely on the vagaries of Equalization payments from Ottawa for its well-being.

He also reminds us that the Graham government is the first New Brunswick government to embrace the reality that you cannot build a prosperous future by relying on federal transfer payments.

Mr. Obama talks about turning a crisis into opportunity, about creating new jobs in a greener environment, about enrolling millions of Americans in healthcare programs and investing in education to make the country more competitive.

The federal government in Canada has promised to help stimulate the Canadian economy and may even jumpstart the process by sidestepping traditional approval procedures to speed up the distribution of stimulus dollars. That could be a slippery slope.

Some of the stimulus money will find its way to New Brunswick so let’s dream a little bit! Assume we could access enough money to convert economic crisis into opportunity. One of the building blocks for self-sufficiency is energy.

What if we added high-speed transportation to the mix?

Imagine a New Brunswick with a high-speed rail system that would make it possible for people in Campbellton to commute daily to work in Moncton or make it possible for people in Edmundston to work in Saint John.

Imagine a high speed rail system that would make it convenient for everyone in the province to use one airport, an airport that would provide frequent service between New Brunswick and its major markets. Imagine a high speed rail system that would make it viable for people in Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton to work in any one of these cities without having to uproot their families.

Imagine high speed rail freight lines that would travel in a straight line from Moncton to Edmundston and from Moncton (via Saint John) to St. Stephen, lines that could carry the trucks and containers that move our products to and from central Canada and the United States.

Imagine the jobs that would be created during construction but more important, imagine how much more efficient our economy would become, how much easier it would be to attract new workers to the province, how much safer our highways would become and how much cleaner our air would be if all those trucks and cars were taken off the road.

A high speed rail network would facilitate the establishment of business and industrial clusters, medical clusters, education, research and innovation clusters. The benefits of clusters are found in economies of scale, technology transfers and the availability of human capital.

As organizations physically congregate in a region, spillovers of knowledge, people and technology occur. These spillovers lead to increased productivity and reduced costs. Savings are generated by the availability of specialized inputs such as information and technology or business services.

As workers are drawn to a region with multiple employment opportunities, firms benefit by having access to a large and appropriate group of potential employees. The existence of a labor pool, if tied to technical or vocational training facilities, can raise worker skill levels and reduce the transaction costs associated with employee searches.

Clustering is the principle behind the Saint John energy hub. There is no reason it could not be applied to the province as a whole. We have the technology. We have the communications infrastructure; all we need is a 21st century transportation system. Will we acquire it anytime soon? Not likely but it’s fun to dream about it.

Sadly, the imperative of most governments is damage control, not ideals or dreams or ennobling challenges but tactics of survival.

We have a premier with a vision. It’s not perfect and there have been more than a couple of stumbles but he should be encouraged to continue on the road to self-sufficiency.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com Atlantic Insight is a published Blog inventory of opinion articles published weekly in New Brunswick's print media as written by W.E. (Bill) Belliveau, who is a resident of Shediac, New Brunswick, and small business owner, operating his Moncton-based marketing consultancy, Bell Strategic. He can be reached by e-mail at mailto:bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com



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