The United Sates appears ready to embrace huge change in the form of Barack Obama.

This week he passed an important milestone by winning majority support from elected delegates. According to the latest tally by Associated Press, Obama only needs another 70 delegates (elected or super) to completely secure the nomination. With the backing of the American people, Mr. Obama will become President of the United States.

Coincidently, it would seem that Canada’s version of change is to play backdoor politics with Senate reform. Canada’s Senators are appointed by the Prime Minister. Stephen Harper wants to reform the Institution by making it “equal, elected and effective”.

It’s not clear what he means by equal but let’s assume he means equal as in representative of the population. Constitutional reform would be required to make the Senate equal and elected. As to effectiveness, that also requires definition. A Senate representative of population would parallel the representation of members of Parliament. Would that be a good thing in a disperse country like Canada?

The United States elects two senators per state. Senate terms are for six years. One third of the Senate is up for election every two years. Members of Congress are elected for two years and the president holds office for four years subject to a maximum of two terms.

There are no limits on the number of times a senator or a member of Congress can be re-elected. In theory, the staggering of term-length holds government more accountable. As we have observed for the last eight years, theory doesn’t always translate into reality.

Canada’s Senate represents each province and territory but not in any proportionate way. Prince Edward Island has four seats. New Brunswick has ten but each of British Columbia and Alberta has only six seats. Constitutional change requires the support of at least seven provinces representing at least two thirds of the population. The problem is that there is no consensus among provinces about Senate reform. Some want it abolished, some want it changed and some are willing to look at alternatives.

Mr. Harper has a different idea and this is where the back door comes into play. Since becoming Prime Minister, he has made one informed Senate appointment, Michael Fortier in Montreal. It’s my recollection that he also accepted the recommendation of Alberta voters and appointed two others. There are now fourteen vacant seats in the Senate.

There is room for 105. There will be another dozen or more vacancies by the end of next year (senators must retire at age 75).

Mr. Harper’s strategy appears to be this (a) convince the provinces to hold senate elections that would deliver recommendations (the outcome of elections) for senate appointments and (b) starve the provinces who do not hold Senate-recommendation elections by not appointing senators from those provinces. In a few short years, that would leave some provinces with little or no representation in the Senate. For those who would say “so what” consider that legislation passed by members of Parliament must be approved by the Senate before it can become law. No representation, means no say.

Here’s the folly in Mr. Harper’s strategy. A recommendation is just that, a recommendation. Nothing in law compels the Prime Minister to accept the recommendations of voters although there might be a political price to pay if he did not. The provinces are entitled to Senate representation under the terms of Confederation. Both the provinces and territories are entitled to Senate representation under the Constitution.

As I recall, both documents are silent on the consequences of a prime minister not filling vacancies in the Senate but it seems reasonable to speculate that a province or provinces left out of the Senate indefinitely, would turn against the federal government responsible for that oversight.

As mentioned above, Alberta now holds Senate-recommendation elections. Saskatchewan is preparing legislation for similar elections. Manitoba is toying with the idea although Premier Doer favors abolition of the Senate as does Ontario’s Premier Dalton McGuinty. Quebec wants more Senate representation but does not support Harper’s backdoor strategy. Atlantic Canada is all over the map.

The real problem with Senate reform is that any change in seat configuration favors the more populous provinces, whether you provide minimum seat guarantees or not. I have no problem with an elected Senate but my guess is that it will never happen unless we resolve the configuration problem. Most important, to even have the debate, we need to reconfirm the purpose of a Senate.

If the purpose is truly “sober second thought” and regional representation as indicated in the original documents of Confederation, let’s design front-door reforms that will attract support of the majority.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com Atlantic Insight is a published Blog inventory of opinion articles published weekly in New Brunswick's print media as written by W.E. (Bill) Belliveau, who is a resident of Shediac, New Brunswick, and small business owner, operating his Moncton-based marketing consultancy, Bell Strategic. He can be reached by e-mail at mailto:bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com