With all kinds of political shenanigans going on in Canada, one might wonder why I would turn to the tiny farm state of Iowa for my first column of 2008.

The answer is simple. Iowa has been a traditional launch pad and/or deathtrap for aspiring candidates to the U.S. Presidency. It’s not that Iowa carries tremendous voting power at a U.S. nominating convention but it’s the first in a series of caucuses and primaries that select delegates to go to the nominating conventions that select presidential candidates.

Historically, results in Iowa have created momentum for winners and snuffed the hopes of those who thought they were winners.

Iowa has a rich agricultural tradition with its 93,000 farms and ranks first in the U.S. in corn and soybean production as well as in hog production. The State has been home to some famous Americans such as the late Herbert Hoover (Director of the FBI), movie-actor John Wayne and band-leader Glenn Miller to name a few. It has a population of 2.9 million, slightly more than the population of Atlantic Canada.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter came in second in the Democratic caucus but went on to win the nomination and the presidency. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won the Republican caucus and went on to win two successive presidencies. In 1992, Bill Clinton was trashed in Iowa but still managed to win both the nomination and the next two presidential elections.

In 2,000 both Al Gore and George W. Bush won their Iowa party caucuses but Bush managed to appropriate the Florida vote to win the presidential election. The rest is history.

This vote is important to Canada and the world because it is the start of a process that will lead to the election of the next President of the United States. That person will arrive in office saddled with a struggling economy damaged by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a chilling deficit, rising oil prices, a declining dollar, a climate change strategy that is out of step with the world and a healthcare system that ignores 20% of its population.

Iowa is the start of a process that will bring fundamental change to the United States or accelerate its decline. The outcome will be critically important to Canada and to all Canadians.

Going into the caucus sessions on Thursday, each party had a cadre of front runners.

The Democrats had Senator Hillary Clinton (still wife of the former president), freshman Senator Barack Obama and John Edwards (former U.S. Senator and Vice-Presidential candidate in 2004).

The Republicans had senior citizen, Senator John McCain from Arizona, the 9/11 media star and former Mayor of New York Rudolph Giuliani, little know Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas Governor and Mitt Romney an American businessman, former Governor of Massachusetts and CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympics.

It will be very difficult for any Republican to succeed George W. Bush as president but if one of them could be successful; my bet would be on Mitt Romney. He’s a dynasty politician – his father was Governor of Michigan and a one time presidential hopeful. He looks like a president but is he a man of substance?

Nearly 70% of Americans are unhappy with the direction of their current government. One assumes they will be looking for change in this year’s election. We saw the sparks of change in Iowa this week.

On Thursday, little known Huckabee beat Romney by nine percentage points. It was a significant upset for Huckabee, a Baptist Minister turned politician. Romney outspent Huckabee 20 to 1 but Huckabee garnered support from “born again and evangelical Christians” who made up half or more of the Republican voters. That said, I would be surprised if Huckabee has legs beyond Iowa.

The Democrats offer the best prospect of change. Hillary Clinton’s inauguration would end 218 years of white male rule in a country where 64% of its citizens are either female or people of colour. Barack Obama is a breath of fresh air and would be the first black president in the history of the United States. John Edwards is the only one of the three front-runners who has a universal health care plan that could lead to a single-payer system like Canada’s.

It’s clear that Obama represents a promise of change but who is he? How much do we really know about him? Is he electable? Could more than 50% of Americans find their way to vote for a black man? When you factor in the Hispanic vote, the youth vote and the Oprah factor, I think it’s possible.

On Thursday, Democratic voters in Iowa selected Barack Obama, eight points ahead of Edwards and nine points ahead of Clinton. He has momentum. If he can carry it through New Hampshire, watch out!

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com Atlantic Insight is a published Blog inventory of opinion articles published weekly in New Brunswick's print media as written by W.E. (Bill) Belliveau, who is a resident of Shediac, New Brunswick, and small business owner, operating his Moncton-based marketing consultancy, Bell Strategic. He can be reached by e-mail at mailto:bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com