On Tuesday, Premier Danny Williams, a Conservative won 70% of the popular vote in the Newfoundland election and promised to fight Stephen Harper, also a Conservative, in the next federal election on the premise that Harper cannot be trusted.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Harper and Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald announced that they have resolved Nova Scotia’s concerns related to interpretation of the Atlantic Offshore Accord. If I understand it correctly, the deal means that Nova Scotia will have the option of selecting the old equalization formula negotiated between Nova Scotia and the former Martin Government or the new equalization arrangement negotiated by MacDonald and Harper without risking loss of any of the benefits it would have received from the 2005 Atlantic Accord. Announcement of the Nova Scotia deal drove Newfounland’s Danny Williams into frenzy.

The Nova Scotia Agreement appears to contradict an earlier promise by Prime Minister Harper that he would not be making any side-deals with any province. Ironically, his flip-flop reinforces the argument put forward by some in New Brunswick that Premier Graham should be more aggressive in seeking a “self-sufficiency” investment from Ottawa.

It was Bill Casey, the Amherst Member of Parliament who brought the issue to a head in Nova Scotia. He was booted from the Conservative caucus last May for voting against the federal budget because it abrogated terms of the 2005 Accord. Harper announced on Thursday that he will run a new conservative candidate in Cumberland-Colchester and it will not be Bill Casey.

Saskatchewan’s NDP Premier, Lorne Calvert responded to the deal by saying ‘what’s good for Nova Scotia is good for Saskatchewan’. He will fight a provincial election in the next few weeks and Nova Scotia’s agreement with the Feds could become an issue in his election campaign.

The day after Newfoundland’s election, Ontario voters re-elected Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty in an overwhelming (71-26-10) win and in so doing rejected Conservative leader John Tory’s promise to extend “faith-based” funding for schools in Ontario. Little noticed in that election was the “Electoral Reform Referendum” on the issue of proportional representation. It was overwhelmingly defeated by voters 63% to 36%. John Tory, a highly respected Toronto businessman and former staffer of once Ontario Premier Bill Davis, was given an excellent chance of unseating McGuinty going into this election. Not only did he lose the election, he failed to win his own seat in Don Valley West.

What’s most interesting about the Ontario election is that both the Liberals and the Conservatives lost popular vote when compared to the last provincial election in 2003. The NDP gained two points but more significantly, the Green Party gained more than five points suggesting that the environment and climate change could become a major issue in the next federal election campaign, which might come as early as this fall.

What’s most significant about these two elections is that they were driven by issues They proved once again that an issue-based election can over-ride the best laid plans of man.

Newfoundland voters gathered behind Danny Williams to declare their support for his Newfoundland-first negotiations with multi-national oil companies and with the federal government in respect to the Atlantic Accord. Ontario voters clearly indicated their opposition to the notion of extending public funding to faith-based schooling enterprises. It was the fundamental issue in that campaign.
In the next federal election, the media and party strategists will attempt to pit Stephen Harper against Stéphane Dion in a personality/leadership contest. They will do so at their peril because the next federal election will be about issues as much as the leaders. Where the leaders stand on matters such as climate change or Afghanistan will define their campaigns. Federal spending powers could be a sleeper issue, as could the economy (what do we do with an over-valued Canadian dollar and loss of trade) and social issues (child poverty, the homeless, seniors, etc).

If recent polls mean anything, climate change could dominate the next election because it stands high on the public agenda and because there are fundamental differences between the leaders in respect to what can and should be done about the issue. It’s no coincidence that winners of this year’s Nobel Peace Prizes are climate activist Al Gore and the United Nations Panel on Climate Change. They were jointly designated are for making the world more aware of the effects of global warming and the role of man in accelerating that warming. Canadian Sheila Watt-Cloutier, an Inuit Environmentalist was a nominee.

The Government’s “intensity-based” climate change initiatives stand in stark contrast to Canadians’ demand for real and tangible reductions in carbon emissions. The issue of global warming and its projected impact is real and Canadians want our federal government to do something about it. Canadians also want a coherent policy on Afghanistan, not a macho declaration of support for a government that chooses to execute fifteen people on a single day.

Mr. Harper caps or reduces federal spending powers to buy votes in Quebec and Alberta; he could remove the possibility of federal investment in the Petitcodiac River cleanup or a new convention centre. A cap on federal spending powers would make it impossible for the Feds to invest in new programs that might address child poverty, the quality of our healthcare system, infrastructure replacement or the financial challenges of post-secondary education.

In the days leading up to this month’s Throne speech, I’m told we could see another advertising campaign directed at Mr. Dion and his Liberal Party that would position any vote against the upcoming Throne speech in Ottawa as proof that the opposition parties want to force an election that Canadians don’t want. I may be ahead of myself on this one but I’m beginning to think it’s time for another election.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com Atlantic Insight is a published Blog inventory of opinion articles published weekly in New Brunswick's print media as written by W.E. (Bill) Belliveau, who is a resident of Shediac, New Brunswick, and small business owner, operating his Moncton-based marketing consultancy, Bell Strategic. He can be reached by e-mail at mailto:bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com