Atlantic Insight

About Atlantic Insight

Atlantic Insight, by southeast New Brunswick's W.E.(Bill) Belliveau who analyzes and comments on matters of public policy and the social and economic decisions taken, by all levels of government from local to global. Atlantic Insight Blog is a commentary on current affairs and changes in the marketplaces and/or in the business world. The impact of policy, decisions and changes are explored for their impact on the citizens of Atlantic Canada. You are invited to add your comments.


Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Ballooning Energy Costs To Speed Process of Change

Two years after Hurricane Katrina smashed into New Orleans and the Louisiana coast, fires rage in Greece, as the result of an extended drought.


In Australia, the Murray-Darling Basin, drains one-seventh of that continent’s land mass and is by far the most significant agricultural area in the country. At the mouth of the Murray-Darling River, one can hear the mechanical drone of a dredging vessel. It runs twenty four hours a day to prevent the river mouth from silting up.


Although the river is Australia's longest, draining a basin the size of France and Spain combined, it no longer carries enough water to carve its own path to the sea. Australia is struggling with the consequences of a devastating seven year drought (with some relief in the last few months) – some say the worst in a thousand years.


A region that accounts for 40% of Australia's agriculture, and 85% of its irrigation, is on the verge of ruin. Most alarming of all, the Murray-Darling troubles are likely to worsen. As Australia's population grows, so will demand for water - in the cities and for the crops that grow in the river basin.


In Greece, there are at least 170 wildfires under way today. As authorities struggle to deal with the crisis, fires push the environment to the top of the political agenda in a country where such issues previously won little attention. This has been one of the hottest and driest summers in recent history and much of southern Europe has been plagued by forest fires. While dry conditions have played a role, apparently many of the fires (in Greece) have been set by arsonists, hoping to clear land for development.

China's rise as an economic power has no obvious parallel in history, so has its pollution problem shattered all precedents. Only 1 percent of the country's 560 million city dwellers breathe air considered safe by the European Union.


China is choking on its own success. The economy is on a historic run, posting a succession of double-digit growth figures. But the growth derives from a staggering expansion of heavy industry and urbanization that requires colossal inputs of energy, almost all from coal, the dirtiest source of energy in the world. China's problem has become the world's problem. Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides spewed by its coal-fired power plants fall as acid rain on Seoul, South Korea, and Tokyo.


Indeed, much of the particulate pollution over Los Angeles originates in China, according to the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Experts once projected that China would overtake the United States as the world's leading producer of greenhouse gases by 2010. Now, the International Energy Agency says China could become the emissions leader by the end of this year. The Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency says China has already passed that level.

In June, extraordinary flooding in England forced thousands of people from their homes. In mid August, the remnants of Tropical storm Erin turned central Oklahoma into a washbasin dropping up to 11 inches of rain in just a few hours and causing its Kingfisher Creek to rise 25 feet “ the highest its ever been’ said an Oklahoma Highway patrolman.

In southern Africa, the number of severe droughts has doubled since 1978 according to Lesotho’s Minister of Natural Resources Monyane Moleleki (Lesotho is a land-locked country surrounded by the Republic of South Africa).

Logic would suggest that most of these events and circumstances are linked to climate change and that we need to do something about it now. Response from the Harper Government this week was to issue a report that tells us why Canada will not and cannot meet its targets under the Kyoto Protocol.


The report estimates that the required cuts in domestic emissions would devastate the economy (read Alberta). It's a summary of this country’s plight as an energy-exporting nation. It’s also a reflection of the influence exercised by the oil sands industry – now Canada’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Under the Kyoto protocol, which Canada ratified in 2005, greenhouse-gas emissions must drop by an average of 6 per cent below 1990 levels (596 megatonnes) during the period 2008 to 2012. Total Canadian emissions were roughly 747 million tonnes in 2005 (most recent year reported by Statistics Canada). According to the Harper Report, Canada would have to drop to an average of 563 million tonnes a year (a twenty-five percent reduction) over the next five years to meet its Kyoto obligations.

The report then leapfrogs to the conclusion that a one-third cut in emissions in 2008 would lower projected GDP by more than 6.5 per cent, real per-capita disposable income would drop, natural gas prices could double and electricity prices could rise by 50 per cent in the next few years.

Clearly, there is no desire in this province or indeed in this country to reduce our disposable incomes, to increase our energy prices or to be faced with high flood waters or receding shorelines so what is the answer?


It seems clear to me that the answer lies in reduced and/or more efficient consumption – fewer miles on our car, more efficient engines, alternative fuels,s fewer air flights, fewer demands on our home appliances, more efficient roofing, improved capture of solar and wind energy, a move to alternative energy forms, etc.


I see opportunity in this crisis. Man’s response to climate change will change how the world gets its energy and how it uses its energy. Changes are already making multi-millionaires out of early investors in renewable energy, clean technologies and carbon trading and that is just the tip of the iceberg (no pun intended).

There are already hundreds of firms competing for next generation energy technology breakthroughs. Man’s desire for survival will drive changes in our energy habits. Ballooning energy costs will speed the process of change.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com Atlantic Insight is a published Blog inventory of opinion articles published weekly in New Brunswick's print media as written by W.E. (Bill) Belliveau, who is a resident of Shediac, New Brunswick, and small business owner, operating his Moncton-based marketing consultancy, Bell Strategic. He can be reached by e-mail at mailto:bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com

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