Atlantic Insight

About Atlantic Insight

Atlantic Insight, by southeast New Brunswick's W.E.(Bill) Belliveau who analyzes and comments on matters of public policy and the social and economic decisions taken, by all levels of government from local to global. Atlantic Insight Blog is a commentary on current affairs and changes in the marketplaces and/or in the business world. The impact of policy, decisions and changes are explored for their impact on the citizens of Atlantic Canada. You are invited to add your comments.


Sunday, February 26, 2006

The perils of deception and secrecy…

According to White House spokesman Scott McClellan, President Bush was unaware that his Administration had approved the sale of a London-based company that manages six U.S. ports including New York and Miami until he read about it in a newspaper.

The purchaser, Dubai Ports World is owned by the United Arab Emirates. McClellan’s revelation was conveniently delivered one day after the President had threatened to veto any attempt by a hostile Congress to prevent the $6.8 billion deal.

Earlier in the week, the story of Vice President Dick Chaney’s hunting accident; involving friend Harry Whittington was still alive as witness the covers of both TIME and Newsweek magazines.

What makes a hunting accident a national news story for more than a week?

Surely it was not the accident but the reporting of the accident that turned the issue into a metaphor for the deception and secrecy that defines the Bush Administration.

The New York Times described the possible legal charges that could be brought in the case of a hunting accident:

"Mr. Cheney could be charged with negligence, defined as failing to understand the dangers involved and disregarding them, or recklessness, defined as understanding the dangers and disregarding them”. Another metaphor, this time for the Administration’s misadventure in Iraq.

The era of deception started with U.S. claims that Iraq was stockpiling weapons of mass destruction. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell formalized those claims in a presentation to the United Nations intended to justify the invasion of Iraq.

Paul R. Pillar, former U.S. National Intelligence Officer and currently faculty member of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University in Washington puts it this way “intelligence on Iraqi weapons programs did not drive the U.S. Decision to go to war.... The U.S. Administration used intelligence not to inform decision-making, but to justify a decision already made."

The Administration selected pieces of raw intelligence to use in its public case for war.... The best-known example was the assertion by President George W. Bush in his 2003 State of the Union address that Iraq was purchasing uranium in Africa. US intelligence analysts had questioned the credibility of the report making this claim… and had advised the White House not to use it publicly.

But the Administration put the claim into Mr. Bush’s State of the Union speech, referring to it as information from British sources in order to make the point without explicitly vouching for the intelligence”.

A former U.S. ambassador Joseph C. Wilson IV investigated reports of Iraq’s uranium purchase for the CIA and found them to be untrue. When the Administration ignored his findings, Wilson wrote a column for the New York Times accusing the Administration of ignoring his report and said the President and Vice President Chaney knew the Niger uranium intelligence was false.

Following publication of the column, the identity of his wife Valerie Plame Wilson was leaked to the press. Plame Wilson was an undercover spy for the Central Intelligence Agency. U.S. law makes it a federal crime to intentionally reveal the identity of an undercover agent with a U.S. intelligence agency

Wilson claims in a book "The Politics of Truth" that the leaker was Lewis "Scooter" Libby, former chief of staff to Vice President Cheney. Libby has been indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges in relation to a U.S. Justice Department investigation of the case. Speculation is that senior officials in the Office of Vice President Chaney conspired to unmask Valerie Plame Wilson’s identity in order to stop her husband from publicly criticizing the Administration’s use of pre-war Iraq intelligence.

Mr. Chaney claims the right, as Vice President to classify and declassify information. In other words, if he thinks some piece of information should be classified, it will be withheld from the public and the media. Ordinarily, hunting accidents wouldn’t be considered classified information nor under U.S. law would an undercover agent’s identity be considered unclassified information.

Chaney did not report his hunting accident. He did not talk to the media until four days later. His host reported the incident to a Corpus Christie newspaper the day following the accident which occurred two Saturdays ago in the late afternoon. The national media did not receive the news until late Sunday afternoon, 20 hours after the fact.

Chaney’s excuse was personal trauma and concern for the victim’s family. Understandable in ordinary context but Dick Chaney is not an ordinary man. He is Vice President of the United States, the most powerful country in the world. When he screws up, he puts the world at risk. When he shows disdain for the public’s right to know, he makes people nervous about what else he is hiding.

Some Americans have demanded that the Vice-President resign because he sprayed a friend with shotgun pellets and failed to report it. Others want to stop the chatter before it gains momentum. “If Dick Chaney resigns, George W. Bush would become President”.

There is great irony in this saga. When the victim, Harry Whittington was released from hospital, he felt compelled to apologize to Vice President Cheney and his family for all they had endured - this from a man who was shot by the Vice President and suffered a mild heart attack as a result of the shooting.

Mr. Whittington described the situation as "a cloud of misfortune and sadness that is not easy to explain, especially to those who are not familiar with the great sport of quail hunting".

To wit: Jon Stewart’s (host of television lampoon the ‘Daily Show’) interview with a fake "firearms mishap analyst, who told him:

"The Vice President is standing by his decision to shoot Harry Whittington. According to the best intelligence available, there were quail hidden in the bush."



Advertisement




Saturday, February 18, 2006

Competing Visions… NB Power and New Brunswick's Energy Future

With the proclamation of New Brunswick’s Electricity Act on Oct. 1, 2004, the Government of New Brunswick divided NB Power into five corporations plus two wholly owned subsidiaries. In addition, it created two additional crown corporations to support restructuring of the Province’s electricity market.

In fiscal 2004/05, NB Power reported fuel and purchased power costs of $497 million. That’s an increase of $30 million over the year before but its $31 million lower than it was in 2002/03.

The Utility’s response was to apply to the Public Utilities Board for an 11.6% (13% for residential customers) rate increase. The Utility claims that it needs the increase to offset growing fuel costs, yet its fuel and purchased power costs for each of the last three years has averaged $497 million, even with increases in the cost of coal, natural gas and oil. A more likely explanation is the loss of $100 million a year in fuel savings that would have been available with Orimulsion.

The Provincial Government’s response to NB Power’s rate increase application was to introduce a $5 million energy efficiency program that would offer interest-free loans up to $10,000 for renovations that will make homes more energy efficient. Good start!

The Premier and his Minister of Finance went a step further by suggesting that if the PUB approves NB Power’s rate increase, Government might pay part of the increase on behalf of some consumers.

The Leader of the Opposition’s response was to head for the United States to see if there is a market for a second nuclear plant at Lepreau. It’s his view that a second plant would help stabilize electricity prices in New Brunswick by reducing NB Power’s dependency on fossil fuels.

He’s also convinced that a second plant could be a major revenue generator for NB Power if surplus generation could be sold to New England.

That assumes it could overcome transmission bottlenecks that could deny market access to NB Power. There is risk in building generation capacity that would depend on U.S. markets for its viability. Electricity is a commodity that trades on the basis of demand and price. When price is too high, market disappears. For example, there are two natural gas plants idle in New England today because of the high price of natural gas. To gain and maintain a U.S. market, NB Power would have to be a low cost producer.

The cost of uranium is only a fraction of the cost of oil. Canada is rich in uranium. Nuclear plants produce a third of Europe’s electricity and a third of Japan’s electricity. France produces 80% of its electricity from nuclear energy, why not New Brunswick?

If a second Lepreau is feasible, it would create hundreds of construction jobs and an estimated 700 permanent skilled and highly paid operating jobs. The cost of constructing a second nuclear plant is estimated at $2 billion. Put that in context.

In fiscal 2004/05 fuel costs at Lepreau were 2% of NB Power’s fuel and purchased power costs but Lepreau accounted for 22% of the utility’s production, even with its problems. If a second plant, together with a refurbished Lepreau-One could double or even triple that production, NB Power’s fuel costs would go down dramatically. Savings could be as much as $150 million a year and would likely pay for the plant and its financing in about twenty five years while export revenues lowered the overall cost of the utility’s operations.

The 2006 Energy Outlook published by the U.S. Government’s Energy Information Administration is projecting that electricity prices will decline over the next ten years as a result of lower natural gas and coal prices. On the other hand, they predict total electricity consumption to grow from 3,729 billion kilowatt hours in 2004 to 5,208 billion kilowatt hours by 2005, a 40% increase. The market may be available in New England but price will be the key to export viability.

The Americans are projecting that increased demand for electricity will be met largely by an increase in gas and coal-fired plants. They project the use of coal will be more than doubled. They are also forecasting an increase in the use of biomass and wind but little or no increase in solar and hydropower. They make the key assumption that conservation will be induced by price and that government conservation programs will have little or no affect on conservation.

If there is a business case for a second nuclear plant, the biggest challenge may be in finding the money to build it. A long-term export contract would help secure the financing. NB Power doesn’t have the borrowing capacity so it would need a partner like AECL or maybe someone like Nova Scotia’s Emera which owns Bangor Light & Power. There may also be an opportunity to offer shares to the general public.

In my view, we need to look at the nuclear option. We have to find a way to get off oil. We have to find stability in our power rates. If we increase NB Power’s export revenue that would help. Wind may add some alternative generation and tidal or wave power may help one day but they are not short-term alternatives. Nuclear power, supported by a long-term supply contract for Canadian uranium and a long-term purchase contract from New England could bring stability and predictability to our electricity bills.

Shawn Graham is right to push for a study that would determine the feasibility of Lepreau II.

We need to get on with it before NB Power breaks the bank.



Advertisement




Saturday, February 11, 2006

People in glass houses…

People in glass houses should not throw stones.

Remember that fellow Stephen Harper yanging about the federal sponsorship program that was run out of the Department of Public Works. Remember his charges of corruption in connection with that program. Remember Mr. Harper’s promise of more accountability.

In fact he promised an Accountability Act as his first order of business in the new Parliament. Remember his rants against an appointed Senate. Remember his sermons about integrity in government.

Ah shucks, he’s gone and spoiled everything. The first thing he does as Prime Minister is appoint a non-elected person as Minister of Public Works, someone who will not be accountable to either electors or Parliament. Then he appoints the same guy to the Senate. Michael Fortier, the new Minister of Public Works, a lawyer and financier was President of the Conservative Party during the nineties.

He was co-chairman of Stephen Harper’s leadership campaign in 2003 and then co-chair of the 2004 and 2006 election campaigns for Stephen Harper. It appears that Fortier’s political credentials override Harper’s principle of accountability. It appears that Harper’s promise of an elected Senate was little more than an election promise, something to be broken when expedient.

In Mr. Harper’s world, credentials must be more important than the judgment of voters because the next thing he does is snatch a Vancouver Liberal, still warm from his time in the Liberal Cabinet and plunk him into his Conservative Cabinet. What kind of a guy gets himself elected as a Liberal and then a few days later accepts an offer to become a Conservative cabinet minister. Integrity and accountability certainly didn’t play a role in his decision.

The people of Vancouver-Kingsway thought they had elected a Liberal to represent them in Ottawa. They were betrayed by a man who justifies his decision by saying he was always a small “c” Liberal. The voters of Vancouver Kingsway gave 18% of their vote to the Conservatives, 43% to the Liberals and 33% to the NDP.

The Liberals want their money back and rightly so. Emerson should resign and run as a Conservative in a by-election. It would be the right thing to do.

Continuing with matters of accountability, we see a former Brigadier General in the Canadian Forces appointed as Minister of Defense. Now some might suggest that’s like throwing a fox into a henhouse but hey that’s not significant when you realize that General O’Connor’s post-military vocation was to serve as a lobbyist representing various businesses (like the infamous Airbus Industrie of Mulroney fame) to the Department of Defense.

Unlike Fortier, O’Connor has been elected to Parliament but one might be tempted to ask how an ex-lobbyist will deal with his former business client(s) as Minister of Defense when it/they seek contracts to build fighter jets. The Prime Minister will surely want to keep a close eye on this one.

Going further down the list, I see three former Mike Harris cabinet ministers in Mr. Harper’s cabinet. You remember Mike Harris’ “common sense revolution” in Ontario. After cutting more than $8 billion from government spending and billions more in taxes, his government left behind a $6 billion deficit and the Walkerton water tragedy.

One of the Harris boys will be our new Minister of Finance; one will be President of Treasury Board and the other Minister of Health. Hard to see how our healthcare system will get more funds from these guys. They should be a great help in reducing patient waiting times.

Next, we have Albertan and former Energy Critic Rona Ambrose appointed as Minister of the Environment. She’s a former Conservative energy critic. Her role in Environment will be to disengage Canada from the Kyoto Accord on greenhouse gas emissions and then build a federal-provincial made in Canada alternative.

Ms. Ambrose made national headlines a year ago with a remark she directed at hockey great Ken Dryden. Mr. Dryden was introducing the Liberal’s national Childcare program when Ms. Ambrose shouted "working women want to make their own choices, we don't need old white guys telling us what to do".

The Conservative platform promised a $1200 a year payment to parents. It also promised to honour the Liberal’s Childcare program but only for one year. Earlier this week, Maureen McTeer, wife of former Conservative Prime Minister Joe Clark argued in a national newspaper for retention of the Liberal’s Childcare program. Jean Charest, Premier of Quebec wants the Harper Government to extend the Liberal Childcare agreement for Quebec.

Dalton McGuinty, Premier of Ontario says me too. To be credible and accountable to his Conservative voters, Mr. Harper has no choice, but to honour his promises, even if it upsets the provinces. What will that mean for national unity?

There was a touch of brilliance in Peter MacKay’s appointment as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister in charge of ACOA.

The Foreign Affairs portfolio will take him out of the Country and make him less of a day-to-day threat to Harper’s leadership. When MacKay is out of the Country, his ACOA responsibilities will be assumed by two Parliamentary Secretaries, one a former member of the Reform /Alliance Party from Calgary and the other a lawyer and professor from Niagara Falls, Ontario who has served on Parliamentary Committees dealing with Human Resources and Employment Insurance. Between the two of them, they should be able to SAP the workings of ACOA.

People were just getting comfortable with Mr. Harper when suddenly he creates a series of situations that contradict the ethos of accountability that Conservatives embraced during the recent election campaign.

At some point, the Conservative Prime Minister might want to spend some time with Webster’s dictionary. To be accountable, is to accept the obligation to bear the consequences for failure to perform as expected. As the self-proclaimed champion of accountability he has so far failed to walk the talk.

Mr. Harper’s glass house of accountability has already been cracked by his tossing of only a few stones.



Advertisement




Tuesday, February 07, 2006

For NB and Canada...What a Week It Has Been

John Manley, Brian Tobin, Allan Rock and Frank McKenna say no to leadership of the federal Liberal Party. McKenna was a shoo-in but chose family over the probability of prime ministership.

The federal Liberal caucus endorsed Stephen Harper’s leadership by appointing Bill Graham as its talking face and “Leader of the Opposition”.

Justice Gomery set the stage for Harper’s “Accountability Act” by bringing down a Report and recommendations that would institutionalize the federal Public Service’s relationship with its political masters.

Stephen Harper promised that his Accountability Act will be the first order of business for his new government while people wait in line for healthcare services.

NB Power applied for another 13% increase in its power rates, likely to offset its Orimulsion losses. Alvie Robichaud announced his retirement after shutting down hundreds of New Brunswick hospital beds.

Premier Lord promises New Brunswick will have the highest increase in workers with post-secondary education in Canada, even as he ignores the fact we have the lowest rate of literacy in the Country. He also promises New Bruswickers the lowest tax burdens east of Alberta while ignoring the fact that his provincial government depends on federal equalization transfers for nearly 40% of its revenue. In other words, Canadians from outside the Province will be asked to subsidize the Premier’s tax base.

George W. Bush read his tele-prompted State of the Union speech. He regurgitated his defense of the Iraqi occupation and threatened (war with) Iran if it doesn’t close down its nuclear (military) program. He also promised to solve North America’s oil dependency, this time with new technology.

Cindy Sheehan (U.S. war protester whose son was killed in Iraq) was dragged out of the gallery immediately before Bush began his delivery. She was a guest of California Congress Representative, Lynn C. Woolsey. Sheehan was tossed in jail because she unzipped her jacket and exposed a T-shirt with the message "2245 Dead. How many more?” 2,245 is the number of Americans who have died in Iraq since the U.S. invasion.

AT&T was named a defendant in a class action lawsuit that claims the telecommunications company illegally cooperated with the U.S. National Security Agency's secret eavesdropping program authorized by George Bush.

So what does it all mean for New Brunswick?

In the first instance, it means that New Brunswick and Atlantic Canada will not soon have one of its own in the Prime Minister’s office.

  • It means that New Brunswick will not be at the centre of national power. It means that Canada will be deprived of some high-level policy debate by experienced political leaders. That should concern us all.
  • It sends a signal that Liberals are resigned to life on the outside for the next few years. It indicts the media for creating a fish bowel atmosphere around political leadership that would scare away the most respectable individuals.
  • It also suggests that the media has succeeded in painting the job of Prime Minister and/or Leader of the Opposition as something less than desirable for one who has enjoyed success in another world. If that is really the case, Canada will be worse for the result. .
  • It means that Stephen Harper will likely be Prime Minister for at least the next six years unless he and his western-based, conservative policy agenda implode.
  • It means that the federal Liberal Party will thrash around for the next year or two searching for a combination of policies and saviours to make it credible in the next election.
  • It means that NB Power could be allowed to destroy the economy of New Brunswick because it blew hundreds of millions of dollars refitting the Coleson Cove generating plant for Orimulsion.
  • It could also mean that the Provincial Government will have to find a tax alternative to NB Power’s profit mandate.
  • In international terms, it means that George Bush has learned nothing from his Iraqi adventure. It means that Vice President Dick Chaney and Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld continue to dominate U.S. foreign policy. It means that threat of another Middle-East invasion by the U.S. is real.
  • It means that human rights and personal liberties in the United States have been and will continue to be trampled in the name of a “war on terrorism”. It means that trillion dollar deficits will continue to be a reality in the United States.
  • It means that American jobs will continue to be exported to India and China. It means that Canadians should be concerned because they are vulnerable to U.S. economic performance and in particular to a downsizing and restructuring of the U.S. auto industry.
  • It means that right wing Conservative policies are no less frightening today than they were during the federal election.
  • Quebec has served notice that it is willing to do business with Conservatives who would weaken the federal government, who would transfer powers and monies to the provinces and who would give the provinces an international role that could undermine the influence of a strong and united Canada. That is a recipe for national disintegration.
Jean Charest, Premier of Quebec, a Conservative in Liberal clothing has indicated his willingness to support Harper’s view of Canada as a “community of communities” Joe Clarke’s euphemism for decentralization and the notion of every man fending for himself.

The issue for New Brunswick is survival.

How will we gain control of our energy costs?
How will we improve our healthcare services?
How will we educate a populace for new age jobs when more than 60% of us are functionally illiterate?
How will we shield ourselves from the fallout of U.S. foreign and domestic policies while increasing trade with the Americans?
How will we resolve the economic disparities that exist between regions of Canada?
How do we convince Quebec to take its rightful position as a full partner in Canada?

These are some of the questions that our leaders might want to consider.



Advertisement