Nearly eight weeks ago, Canadians elected, albeit tentatively a Conservative Government.

Early stumbles by the Party’s leadership in respect to Cabinet appointments and ethics commissioners have caused some to believe that life for this government may be shorter than longer.

The result is that a plethora of potential leadership candidates for the Opposition Liberals are dipping their feet in the water to determine what kind of support they might have at a leadership convention expected some time this fall or early in 2007. They range from former Ontario NDP Premier Bob Ray to new-borns from the Progressive Conservative Party to a dozen or so Liberal members of Parliament.

Mr. Harper’s Afghanistan trip earlier this week, complete with photo-ops was designed to lift him above the pedantic of domestic affairs and to generate support for Canada’s military and humanitarian role in that far away land. It ignored the fact Canada went to Afghanistan as a sop to the Americans for not joining their invasion of Iraq.

Regardless of the reason for going, the legitimacy of Canada’s “mission” seems to have proven itself even if there is no reasonable expectation of success in the near term. That does not mean that members of Parliament should be denied the right to debate the merits of a long-term stay in Afghanistan (Harper).

The positive images created by the Afghan trip served Mr. Harper well but he still has to deal with the domestic realities of childcare, the incremental commercialization of healthcare in Quebec and Alberta, the financing of GST cuts, resolution of the so-called fiscal imbalance with the provinces and other hot-button issues. Unfortunately, his clampdown on public communications by bureaucrats and cabinet ministers, as reported two days ago appears the antithesis of his Afghan media success.

A minority government has no control over its future.

Even with an agenda, reliance on opposition parties (particularly the Bloc Quebecois) for survival is no guarantee of continued existence. The Liberals need at least a year to sort out their policies, future vision and leadership so they are not likely to force an early election unless forced to on a matter of principle.

In the event of an early election, the Liberals would be leaderless. Paul Martin has ruled out a comeback so interim leader Bill Graham would be in the driver’s seat. It’s unlikely the Party could win with Graham but there are precedents for the election of a leaderless party.

The national media has identified fifteen potential leadership candidates for the Liberal Party. Doug Fisher, Senior Parliamentary Analyst and Journalist for the Sun Newspaper Group ranks fourteen of the potential candidates on the basis of age, intelligence, education, linguistic fluency, political experience and record of accomplishment. He puts Michael Ignatieff (Harvard academic) at the top and opines that Frank McKenna and John Manley would be number two and three respectively if they reversed themselves and entered the race.

In Fisher’s ranking, there was one Atlantic Canadian and that was local MP, Dominic LeBlanc.

Fisher ranked him thirteenth out of fourteen (does not include McKenna or Manley). While Fisher acknowledges LeBlanc’s credentials in terms of age, good looks, French/English proficiency and political experience he pans him for a lack of “heft and craft”. That may be a little harsh.

Mr. Leblanc has been an excellent Member of Parliament for Beausejour. He’s done much to improve Canada’s Employment Insurance Program and helped steer significant economic development to his riding of Beausejour. He has served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of National Defense.

I’m told he did an outstanding job as Assistant House Leader during Paul Martin’s tenure as Prime Minister. But none of this makes him a national figure and none of this gives us a glimpse into his character or the strength and development of his ideas.

There is no question he has the intellectual, academic and personal credentials to one day become a national leader but today, he’s largely an unknown. There are some who are pushing him hard to be a candidate for the leadership but I would advise him to wait. He has family responsibilities that will tie him to New Brunswick for the next few years. He needs time to grow his political experience, time to crystallize the ideas that would form the basis for his vision of Canada.

Dominic LeBlanc has been handed a wonderful opportunity. In the next Parliament, he will be the Opposition critic for International Trade. That position will provide him with the chance to become expert on international trade issues and export development.

It will give him a first hand view of the issues surrounding the softwood lumber dispute and the challenges of border crossing. It will pit him head to head with one of the most powerful ministers in Stephen Harper’s cabinet. It will give him a chance to earn the credentials that a few short years in Parliament have not given him.

Mr. LeBlanc has the chutzpah to one day become Prime Minister of Canada. He has the intelligence, the personality, the age, the language proficiency and the political savvy that Canadians would want in their Prime Minister but he needs to develop and hone his ideas and he needs to prove his fettle under fire before Canadians will give him the chance.

It might be helpful if Dominic could spend a few years under the tutelage of people like Bill Graham or Michael Ignatieff (Harvard professor, world-class journalist and potential leadership candidate) before he jumps into the leadership ring. At the very least, he needs to surround himself with modern day, liberal policy wonks to help him work through his ideas.

Doug Fisher may have done LeBlanc a service by giving him pause to reflect on his “heft and his craft”.